Recently, just before elections, global terrorist money laundering watchdog organization, Financial Action Task Force (FATF) placed Pakistan on its watch list. FATF is a 37-member watchdog organization, and 36 members voted in favor to place Pakistan on the watchdog list. Only Turkey voted against it, and both China and Saudi Arabia, Pakistan’s supposedly staunch allies, voted in favor to place Pakistan on Terrorist Money Laundering Watch list. It shows how bad things are, and how deep Pakistan’s credibility has eroded. India and USA spearheaded the campaign to place Pakistan on watch list. Financial Insider writes on its blog;
“Pakistani officials and analysts fear being on the FATF list could endanger Pakistan’s handful of remaining banking links to the outside world, causing real financial pain to the economy.”
In October 2016, Pakistan’s civilian government warned Military establishment that Pakistan will be isolated in the world unless all measures are taken to eradicate terrorism ,including proxy agents, and actions are taken against perpetrators of Mumbai attacks in India. The civilian government told Military that whenever it arrests these perpetrators, ISI works behind the scene to release them.The Military was not happy, and warning was taken as a threat to Military’s core interests. The civilian government faced serious consequences for challenging the Military. In recent elections , Military intervention made sure it does not win the elections.
The (European Union) EU watchdog Election Mission in Pakistan, claimed that although overall 2018 elections were credible, but not as credible as 2013 elections. The EU commission noted following alarming findings, as reported by Dawn , which calls into question their own conclusion of credible election;
According to the Mission, “Most interlocutors acknowledged a systematic effort to undermine the former ruling party through cases of corruption, contempt of court and terrorist charges against its leaders and candidates.”
“The elections took place against a background of allegations of interference in the electoral process by the military-led establishment and the role of the judiciary as a political actor,”
“the electorally sensitive timing, as well as the content of decisions of courts investigating or adjudicating on matters related to high-profile Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz (PML-N) candidates were perceived by several stakeholders as an indication of the politicization of the judiciary.”
Another interesting observation made in the preliminary statement says that security force officials “recorded and transmitted the results, giving the impression of an ongoing parallel tabulation.
The Military’s parallel monitoring of results from polling stations, at least suggests that perhaps backup plan was in place to get the desired results.
After elections it is obvious that PTI will form the next Government of Pakistan. There is reasonable chance that PTI will deliver to a certain degree on internal matters of corruption, health, education, and basic needs. But the sticky matters of Army affairs, terrorism and foreign policy, especially relations with India, are obstacles to any progress as it has doggedly haunted previous civilian governments.
What will happen to immediate matter of being on the terrorist money laundering watch list by FATF? Imran Khan has been called Taliban Khan for his sympathy to Taliban and questioning the need for war against terrorism. PTI government in PK allocated Rs 3 Million in their 2016/2017 budget that was supported by Imran Khan. How Imran Khan will satisfy FATF, against his own beliefs and without stepping on Army’s toes, to prevent further action by FATF of banning international banks and financial institutions to work with Pakistan’s banks? It can cripple Pakistan’s economy. He must keep in mind what happened to previous civilian government when it warned Military about it.
India is emerging economic power and all countries, including China and Middle East, would like to do business with India and accommodate its interests in all matters. Unfortunately, Pakistan does not have much to offer to the rest of the world that can attract their support. Some Western countries are giving token support because they fear economic collapse in a nuclear Pakistan might generate more violent extremism. China’s support is shaky and it alone cannot save Pakistan.
Recent elections will further embolden the military to get desired results by means other than imposing Martial Law. Military has found a way to have a leash on any civilian leader by bringing Judiciary under its fold.
Even if Imran Khan is sincere and honest, as all his supporters believe, will he make any difference? Most of the analysts think only on the margins, until three major issues are resolved. Number one, good relations with India. Number two, full civilian control on Military. Number three, which is correlated with other two, elimination of all forms of terrorism including proxy actors. More than anybody else, Imran Khan knows that it is impossible to achieve any of these goals, because he was a willing player used by the Military, to create unrest and topple previous civilian government which, despite being corrupt, tried to do exactly that.
Worth reading following supporting links for the article, especially the first link.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1288350
https://www.dawn.com/news/1266524