Iran & President Trump
After symbolic sanctions imposed by Mr. Trump for firing of Ballistic Missile by Iran, the Iranians defiantly fired another missile. It seems egos are flaring up. No one was surprised by Mr. Trump’s escalation of the situation, but Iran’s firing of second missile is puzzling. What Iran is thinking? Can it militarily stand up to USA? The wise course is to lay low and not escalate the situation otherwise it may end up like Iraq. There are some hawks in President Trump’s inner circle who desperately want to confront Iran militarily and this escalation may give them an excuse to do so. Israel might be looking for the same window. The check Mr. Obama kept on Israel is no longer there.
Iran may be doing it intentionally to blow up the nuclear deal thinking that it will be hard for Mr. Trump to get Europeans, Russia and China on his side to re-impose the sanctions. It may be true, but it is still a highly risky move as Mr. Trump and Israel may decide to go it alone to use military. If it happens, Europe may not have much choice but to join them also.
It is better to stay low. Iran cannot out bluff Mr. Trump. He will continue to put more chips on the table, no matter what the consequences for anyone.
F. Sheikh
Dr. Fayyaz Sheikh wrote an interesting
“Brief Thought” about second missile tested by Iran.
It is a high stake game which can have dire consequences for Iran but for USA as well.
Iran is not Iraq.
Iran had a long history even before Islam. Iran has lot of natural resources incuding oil and a vast land with few minorities at the fringes – Kurds in north west and Blochies in south east.
Ruling elite (35 plus years) is Shia theocracy with about over 500 years in Iran and religiously going back to Hazrat Ali, almost beginning of Islam.
Strait of Harmoz is the biggest advatage/disadvatage for Iran regarding oil passage from Persian gulf.
Iran is not attacking anybody outside of its territorail boundries. Just testing some missiles within its territory using the sovereign rights and privilges of an independent state.
Iraq was diffetent. A state created by european imperialist powers after WW1. 3 ehinic groups, sunni, shia, Kurds – lot of oil but no political homogenity.
After Iraq and Afghanistan fiascos, it will be difficult for USA president for full scale aggression and occupation.
USA and Israel can do lot of damage to Iran by using air power. But how do they know how Iran will react – Strair of Harmoz and Hizbullah options are there.
Iran as a soverign nation cannot just be silent after first missle test and USA reaction.
It is a risky but complicated situation for Iran, USA and Israel as well.
nSalik (Noor Salik)
Noor Salik Sahib has made solid arguments. Same arguments Obama Administration considered and resisted heavy pressure from Israeli and Arab’s lobby and decided to make a nuclear deal rather than use force. Obama also looked the other way on testing of five such missiles after the deal.
Now people in charge are drunk with power, animosity and itching to make their mark. People like Bannon, Flynn and Kushner, who are encircling Mr. Trump, have no perspective and experience. Arabs will be willing to bankroll it and even work with Israel to neutralize Iran. Israeli and Saudi interests may get conflated with American interests.
The only hope in Trump Administration is General Mattis and General Kelly who do not want to jeopardize the nuclear deal but they blame Iran for lots of deaths of our American soldiers in Iraq, and they have advocated in the past to confront Iran militarily.
Fayyaz