Few days ago China placed its oil rigs about 200 miles off the coast of Vietnam in South China Sea and fired water cannons at Vietnam’s vessels which were trying to block it. China has territorial and maritime disputes with many of its neighbors some of which include Japan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Philippines, and Indonesia. Just a few years ago, China was enjoying cozy relations with most of its neighbors with advancing economic ties but it changed ever since its dispute with Japan flared up over Senkaku/Diaou islands, and USA started to move aggressively in the South pacific region to build new military alliances with countries surrounding China. Recently USA conducted naval exercises with Vietnam.

Our strategy of encircling China with military alliances is similar to expansion of NATO  around Russia. Will these military alliances act as a deterrent or create a paranoia that will lead to a unnecessary military conflict? The Ukraine conflict is a prelude to what is in the store for future, and if not handled properly it can lead to a bigger more disastrous war. Our Naval exercises with Vietnam did not prevent China from moving ahead to place oil rigs in South China Sea and expansion of NATO did not prevent Mr. Putin to annex Crimea.

Our weak military alliances around China and Russia may give false sense of security to these countries and which may expect more from us than we can deliver. It may induce them to act irresponsibly, take hard stand to resolve the differences peacefully and even escalate an incidence. Indirectly we may be pushing China and Russia to become allies against encirclement of their borders and push back militarily against their neighbors leading to military conflicts.    

What is the alternative?

Few year back, over Siachin and Kargil conflict, Pakistan and India were on the brink of war, but it was averted by pressure from Business leaders in India who warned about disastrous economic consequences. Economic ties and Economic independence, which was absent during Cold War, is the best deterrence to conflicts and potent incentive to resolve them peacefully. If we are concerned and want to help the countries surrounding China and Russia, we should encourage and help them to build democratic institutions as well as economic ties with China, Russia and the West.  For these countries economic alliances are much more beneficial and deterrent to armed conflict than military alliances. Unfortunately they may still be exploited by their powerful neighbor, but they will be much better off with economic ties, which will bring them prosperity, as compared to military alliances which will inevitably bring armed conflict causing loss of innocent lives, misery and economic disaster as is happening in Ukraine. Unfortunately with military conflict, these countries may become battleground for proxy war between major powers and ruining the whole country with many innocent lives lost.

For the West, expanding military alliances does not make much sense either, because it brings un-necessary responsibility and may entangle us in an armed conflict we either do not want to get involve or cannot afford to get involved. No country in the West, especially USA, is ready to send their daughters and sons to defend faraway lands. These military alliances may generate the very armed conflicts we trying to avoid.