Qamar Ali writes in 3 Quarks Daily about PTI & Imran Khan’ Loss
In the short election campaign the Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf (PTI) of Imran Khan captured the imagination of the newly educated and elite classes but it did not have the time (and/or the ability) to catch up with the pre-poll favorite, the PMLN. The superior and far more detailed groundwork done by the PMLN while it ruled Punjab for 5 years, its stronger slate of candidates, its relatively energetic performance in the Punjab government, and Mian Nawaz Sharif’s improved reputation, (along with a PPP collapse) led to a PMLN landslide in Punjab.
There, an almost millenarian excitement took hold of the middle class in the course of the PTI campaign; This phenomenon was most visible on social media and in the better neighborhoods of urban centers. Meeting each other at coffee spots and snack bars and pushing “like” buttons on each other’s facebook pages, the newly energized middle class supporters of Imran Khan managed to convince themselves that a complete root and branch renovation of Pakistan under brand new leadership was on the cards.
Never mind that Imran Khan’s had not told anyone how the great 90 day transformation would be carried out in terms of actual mechanics and workable solutions. Or that Imran Khan’s actual candidates (in a parliamentary system, constituency politics matters) were a motley collection of turncoats, inexperienced youngsters, Islamists (a good number made their bones in the Islami Jamiat Tulaba, student wing of the Jamat Islami and not known for handling opponents with kid gloves),
NGO stars and not-so-clean real estate manipulators was ignored. Unaware that this excitement had not really reached all voters, these newly politicized young people were taken aback when results did not match expectations and loudly complained about electoral rigging. But there is no indication that there was any nation-wide systematic manipulation by the establishment of the sort that has happened regularly in past elections. Small-scale local rigging did take place (and possibly some late-night administrative shenanigans did take place in Punjab once trends became clear) but compared to most past elections, this one was relatively clean in Punjab. Since most PTI voters were not involved in past elections, they don’t have any benchmark with which to compare this election and remain convinced that they were robbed. But given the fact that PMLN has probably won fair and square on most seats and even PTI enthusiasts have little concrete proof of extensive rigging, these protests will fade soon in Punjab.
Qamar Ali writes about Karachi and MQM
The same cannot be said of Karachi; there, the MQM has been accused of extrensive ballot-stuffing and other irregularities. While PTI did not make any serious campaign effort in the MQM strongholds, they did put up a strong campaign in NA250, where a lot of the super-elite lives. When the election commission failed to conduct a fair election even in that seat the PTI broke a longstanding Karachi taboo and openly protested against the MQM. MQM chief Altaf Hussain made a threatening speech from London in response and on Saturday a prominent member of the PTI women’s wing was shot dead in an apparent target killing.
While no one has claimed responsibility and the police (as usual) have no leads, Imran Khan made the unusual move of publicly holding Altaf Hussain responsible for this murder. The resulting confrontation between the PTI and the MQM has raised the hopes of all those in the country who think the MQM needs to be cut down to size and its mafia-like hold on Karachi has to be defanged. But that may be easier said than done. .
Karachi is a migraine for all concerned. First of all, we should be clear that there is no question of PTI “taking on” the MQM in Karachi on its own. PTI has no armed operatives and no mafia-skills. They can collect everyone’s sympathy and still get nowhere. The only way this confrontation tilts towards PTI is if the state is willing to fight MQM on their behalf. But that has issues of its own. The police and judiciary in Karachi is currently politicized, corrupt and ineffective. They will not be able to do this job on their own. This means that if there is a confrontation between the state and MQM, the army and its intelligence agencies will be involved or MQM will win. And the “agency” way of “getting it done” in Pakistan usually involves causing a split in the targeted party (e.g. by engineering a revolt in the party or maybe even getting Altaf Hussain arrested in London in connection with the killing of Imran Farooq ), setting off a turf-war on the streets, and then using extra-judicial executions and disappearances to manage the resulting violence. They have no other script. But these are inherently risky operations and the intelligence agencies have such a long and convoluted history of meddling in Karachi that by now even they dont know who will fight who on whose behalf. Since neither the PMLN nor the army, can afford a risky operation in Karachi while busy fighting Taliban, its probalby not going to happen in the near future. Even if they do try it, it will not be the quick restoration of law and order so desired by many who are currently sick of the MQM. It will be chaotic, it will be violent, and it will not end soon. And given rumors of links with British intelligence and the “international community”, Altaf Hussain may not have run out of options yet. So the more likely scenario is that PTI’s more elite followers will be permitted to openly challenge the MQM in some areas (a big change in itself) but there will be no grand operation and no sudden restoration of rule of law in Karachi. IF Nawaz Sharif and the army prove to be miracles of farsightedness and maturity, then maybe in a few more years MQM will be pushed towards either becoming a more normal political party, or be defanged by careful use of improved law-enforcement in Karachi. All that without alienating Mohajirs as a community or carrying out extensive kill-and-dump operations and crudely executed gang-on-gang manipulations. One can always hope, but there is no quick fix. For full analysis of future of politics in Pakistan, click on link below:
http://www.3quarksdaily.com/3quarksdaily/2013/05/aftermath-pakistan-elections-2013.html?
Posted By F. Sheikh
May 21, 2013 09:00 PM
Excellent analysis of Pakistani recent election and political process.
I always had a positive feeling for MQM because it represented an average person in Pakistan . After reading this analysis, I had to change my views about MQM top leadership. If the base of MQM is widened, through democratic process the leadership can be changed. MQM is the only political party where the abolishing of feudalism in Pakistan is written in its constitution.
This analysis tells us what Imran khan represents in Pakistani politics. He will be given a chance in KP. Let us see what he does.
The democratic process must be given a chance. The political system will cleanse itself.
But it takes time. Nothing happens overnight with stable roots in political developments.
It was alarming that the writer of this analysis mentions ‘Miracles’ multiple times.
The word itself reflects pseudo thinking prevalent in that culture.
The writer represents the political and economic interests of ruling class in Pakistan.
He has given a hint to military and PLMN to share the political and economic rewards if both groups are careful and learn how to cooperate with each other without crossing each other boundaries.
There is no mention of any reduction in defense budget.
The writer wants to maintain the status quo.
It may be too much to expect from a political analyst to lay down the future political and economic policies of Pakistan.
But he equated the conservative Islamic political forces and progressive forces in Pakistan.
He is not ready to welcome any such group.
To equate the progressive and regressive forces is intellectual dishonesty and may be hypocrisy.
This is Thinkers Forum USA. Affiliates are entitled to express their points of view.
If you disagree with this statement, let us hear from you.
Noor Salik
1- Qamar Ali’s analysis is very telling about MQM. His following lines are scary and daring which other analysts were afraid to write.
” When the election commission failed to conduct a fair election even in that seat the PTI broke a longstanding Karachi taboo and openly protested against the MQM. MQM chief Altaf Hussain made a threatening speech from London in response and on Saturday a prominent member of the PTI women’s wing was shot dead in an apparent target killing.
While no one has claimed responsibility and the police (as usual) have no leads, Imran Khan made the unusual move of publicly holding Altaf Hussain responsible for this murder. The resulting confrontation between the PTI and the MQM has raised the hopes of all those in the country who think the MQM needs to be cut down to size and its mafia-like hold on Karachi has to be defanged. But that may be easier said than done.”
In toady’s news in Dawn, see below , Altaf Hussain is indirectly confirming what Qamar Ali is writing:
Dawn 5/22/13
KARACHI: Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) chief Altaf Hussain on Wednesday announced the instigation of a ‘reformation’ process within the party ranks, DawnNews reported.
Speaking to members of the party’s Rabita (coordination) Committee via telephone from London, the MQM chief prohibited collecting any sort of donations from the general public. He said there is a ban imposed on funds collection, adding that the basic party membership of culpable worker/workers will be revoked upon any such complaints.
Hussain said the MQM follows “zero tolerance policy” when it comes to “China Cutting,” settlements and land-grabbing. “There is no room in MQM for people involved in these unlawful activities,” he added.
The MQM chief urged any party activist, involved in land and property grabbing or sale/purchase of houses, apartments or plots, to voluntarily resign from the party membership.
Otherwise, he added, upon receiving any such complaint, party membership of the guilty worker will be terminated.
On Tuesday night, Altaf Hussain had also disbanded his party’s Karachi Tanzeemi (organising) Committee citing ‘hooliganism’ during his speech on Sunday morning.”
2- I do not think any revolution will happen in Pakistan, by luck it will be slow change of Civilian Government getting stronger and Military receding its authority- like Turkey.
3- Even though PTI workers are disheartened, but its Party has already shaken the equation and moved the Democratic process along. Time will tell if its newly arrived converted leaders and workers stay with the PTI in opposition and become mature leaders. If it happens so, it will be great for the country.
4- Nawaz Sharif proved himself to be a shrewd and mature politician. I think his election has brought some credibility to the Government of Pakistan both at home and abroad. Zardari has contributed a lot by continuing the Democratic process but unfortunately he did not have credibility at home or abroad.
Fayyaz
I am in substantial agreement with the observations of Qamar Ali. However, he did not pry deep into the details of pre-election planning and its careful execution by Nawaz Shareef, starting as early as 18-20 months prior to May 11, 2013. Nawaz Shareef took an exhaustive survey of all constituencies in Punjab, from early 2012 on wards. He identified his possible and probable candidates with surer chances of winning in their respective constituencies. He placed the big guns of PMLN in those constituencies where the local candidate were not sure winners, to ensure the Party victory. He then worked on the dynamics of placing loyal Returning Officers and Presiding officers, not only for the scrutiny of candidacy applications, but also for effective planning of Polling day maneuvers. For icing on the cake, both Nawaz Shareef and his talented and hard working brother Shahbaz burnt the midnight oil and bit the bullet for days on with marathon sessions of addressing political Jalsas in 5-6-7 places in each day. The gruelling schedule was both awe inspiring and reassuring to the impressionable voters. The entire campaign was organized like a symphony of Mozzart and the show ended with a fine crescendo. PMLN’s victory was thoroughly preplanned and masterfully executed to its minutest detail. Nawaz Shareef had the Provincial Administration’s full cooperation rather complicity and subservience in placing the right personnel in right places throughout the ECP mechanism. PMLN also had the blessing and nod of approval from Lahore High Court and the Supreme Court benches. That reminds me of a famous Urdu/Hindi saying which goes like this :
“SaiNyyaN bhaey kutwaal to darr kaahay ka” . In short PMLN’s campaign was a text book perfection of “Pakistani” electioneering technique.
Imran Khan, had many weaknesses in his battle e.g. on one hand, old soldiers of disrepute carrying their dirty baggage to PTI theater, and on the other, new soldiers, green with zero combat experience and no clue how to tie their own shoe laces leave alone making a difference in their respective constituencies. The only thing going for Imran Khan was his personal reputation of utmost honesty and passionate hatred for corruption of all sorts. His devolution as a born again Muslim had equal number of admirers and doubters. His background of being a world champion captain of the national cricket team, his hallmark achievements of SK Hospital, Namal University, his Oxford education and his dashing good looks and personality, all combined as the Pied Piper of Hamelin for the youth of the country. The social media of Tweeter and Face Book too acted as wild fire to fire up the youth. The educated upper middle class, which had remained indifferent to all previous elections in the country, also got passionately involved and came out to elect IK’s candidates. This was the greatest contribution of IK to the political conscience of the Nation. The most admirable aspect of IK’s endeavor is that his ideology and his personal appeal transcended all barriers of language, region and income groups. He offered a new hope to the Nation, but he lost out to a more clever, experienced, cartel of old politicians, administrative complicity and judicial blessing.
Coming to MQM, lets examine the collective psyche of MQM supporters. They are mainly Urdu speaking families who had emigrated from India at partition. The level of literacy and education among those immigrants was well above the national average. Besides, the highest bureaucracy at creation of Pakistan consisted of ICS officers who had opted for Pakistan and Urdu was their vernacular. Chief Commissioner A.T.Naqvi, Syed Hashim Raza, to name as example, were the Brown Sahibs in the newly created Pakistan. The absence of other ethnicities in higher bureaucracy, like Punjabis, Sindhis, Bengalis, Pathans or Baloch, gave a false sense of superiority and of entitlement to Urdu speaking immigrants in general. In expected reaction, there was natural resentment among the native ethnicities who disliked the chip on the shoulder, Prima Donna attitude of Mohajirs. Ayub Khan’s terminating of 303 very senior bureaucrats was the first salvo fired at Mohajirs. Soon it was followed by shifting of the Capital from Karachi to Islamabad. When ZAB came to power, riding on the overwhelming support of Punjabis, he started the Lateral Entry Scheme to put merit-less Sindhis (mostly sons, nephews etc of his political supporters in Sindh) directly in senior bureaucratic posts like Deputy Secretaries in federal ministries. That was the beginning of the end of the impeccable standard set by the British for the Civil Service. Thereafter the ill-treatment of Mohajirs kept snowballing, blocking all opportunities to them, by imposing restrictions like quota system etc. Now the tables had turned and Mohajirs started feeling victimized. When Ziaul Haq grabbed power, he wanted to break the influence of PPP in Karachi and rest of the Urban Sindh. That led to the formation of Mohajir Quomi Movement with Ziaul Haq’s blessing. The rest is history. To cut a long story short, MQM again went into the mode of feeling entitled in urban Sindh. Little did Altaf Hussain realize that he had over-stayed his welcome as the leader of Mohajirs. The younger Mohajirs, most of whom are third generation Pakistanis, are same as any other young Pakistani from Punjab, Sindh, KPK or Balochistan. They feel being held hostage by Altaf Hussain and his secret shooters. IK’s silent appeal was more loud than Altaf Hussain’s telephonic speeches. The worst element, which damaged overall image of MQM has been Altaf Hussain’s theatrical antics, which are secretly hated by almost all Mohajirs. Altaf causes Mohajirs’ heads to hang in shame. His Mafioso hold on its followers has cooked up mutinous sentiment and that hatred is no longer a whispered campaign. PTI’s dharna brought on the fissures in the MQM Dam. Altaf realized that his control is evaporating. He panicked and spoke like an ordinary goon in his lecture. There is no going back to unquestioned loyalty to Altaf by young Mohajirs. Most people are waiting with bated breath for the dam to break down.
Wequar Azeem
Mr. Wequar Azeem’s statistics of Muslim ‘Brown Sahibs’ in 1947 is not quite accurate.
83 ICS officers opted for Pakistan. One was a Bengali from Calcutta. The other 82 were almost evenly divided between Punjabi and Urdu speaking; no Pathan, Sindhi or Baluchi.
Urdu speakers did look down upon non Urdu speakers both in West and East Pakistan.
Urdu speakers had a good time till Ayub took over and sacked 301 senior officers, of which 299 were Urdu speakers.
After 1971 civil war, Pakistan refused to accept Pakistani nationals from Bangladesh.
ZAB hammered the last nail in the coffin ‘Mohajir’ disenchantment with Pakistan.
Jamaat e Islami took over Mohajir votes but Mohajirs were too secular to be really loyal to bigot Wahabis.
Zia was scared of PPP so helped create Mohajir, Sindhi and Pathan ethnic entities in Karachi. Mohajirs, being more politically aware, forged ahead.
Imran was destined to be a failure. He and Mohajirs share only one thought; dislike of each other.
He was a failure in the Punjab because pragmatic Punjabis did not see any difference between him and Nawaz; and Nawaz and Shahbaz had done constructive work in the province.
He won in KPK because his patrons the Taliban terrorists were successful in preventing ANP from campaigning.
He will be instrumental in Islamizing KPK and together with the Afghan Islamist terrorists, if not actively suppressed, will lead to a fierce separatist movement reminiscent of Pakhtoonistan of yesteryears, which will encourage and enhance Baluch-Sindhi separatism.
E
Dr. S. Akhtar Ehtisham
In my first comment above I wrote about Imran Khan:
“This analysis tells us what Imran khan represents in Pakistani politics. He will be given a chance in KP. Let us see what he does.”
I found a potential/possible answer in Dr. Syed Ehtisham’s comment:
“He [Imran Khan] won in KPK because his patrons the Taliban terrorists were successful in preventing ANP from campaigning.
He will be instrumental in Islamizing KPK and together with the Afghan Islamist terrorists, if not actively suppressed, will lead to a fierce separatist movement reminiscent of Pakhtoonistan of yesteryears, which will encourage and enhance Baluch-Sindhi separatism.”
This is called critical/analytical analysis of a situation.
Through his analytical powers, Dr. Syed Ehtisham is prophesizing the potentialities and possible consequences of electoral win of PTI (Imran Khans part) in PKP (Former NWFP) province of Pakistan.
It does not mean what Dr. Ehtisham is predicting will happen necessarily. Only time will tell. If Imran Khan is a great political leader, he can bring about lot of positive results in the area under his influence.
This is called giving a chance to political process.
Elections have happened in Pakistan. All winning parties must be given a chance for the full term described in the constitution.
After full term there will be elections again. The process will decide who will come to power in the next election.
Under present political systems if one expects too many good results for the economic, social and political betterment of the masses, it may be a wishful thinking.
but you cannot discredit a political party until they are given a chance to rule and deliver on their promises for the full term.
Let the political process be given a chance in Pakistan for a considerable period of time.
What is a ‘considerable period’ in this situation?
It can be and should be debated.
Let me make a provocative statement.
=============================
People who believe in conspiracy theories believe that external forces are planning the disintegration of Pakistan. If Pakistan disintegrates (I hope it does not), it will happen because of internal contradictions not external conspiracies.
The provocative statement:
______________________
Because Pakistan is an atomic power, the disintegration of Pakistan does not serve the political interest of USA, China, India and Iran. The only country which strategically benefits from potential disintegration of Pakistan is Afghanistan.
Balochis like Kurds are scattered in multiple states.
Kurds in Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria.
Balochis in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran.
Only Pashtoons are in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Hence Afghanistan will be the only beneficiary of political turmoil of Pakistan.
I am a political analyst. NO. I am just an affiliate of Thinkers Forum USA.
I am just expressing my opinions.
If you disagree with me, please says so, here in this environment. Your criticism will help me to clarify my own ideas.
This is the purpose of Thinkers Forum USA – to practice and develop analytical skills.
Noor Salik
Comment on Noor Salik; I do not think any country will benefit, including Afghanistan, from Pakistan’s disintegration. Pakistan’s army needs a country for its own survival. I think disintegration talk is overblown, especially after present elections.
Dr. Ehtisham’s following comments;
1-He ( Imran Khan) was a failure in the Punjab because pragmatic Punjabis did not see any difference between him and Nawaz;
2-Jamaat e Islami took over Mohajir votes but Mohajirs were too secular to be really loyal to bigot Wahabis.
3-Imran was destined to be a failure. He and Mohajirs share only one thought; dislike of each other.
4-Zia was scared of PPP so helped create Mohajir, Sindhi and Pathan ethnic entities in Karachi. Mohajirs, being more politically aware, forged ahead.
My Comments;
1- I agree that Punjabis are pragmatic. They vote for the person whoever they think is better for the country and Punjab, and that is why they voted for PPP when they thought they will be better for the country.
2- Mohajirs were more educated as well as religious as compared to other minorities. They left Jamat-e-Islami and joined MQM to address their rightful grievances and not because they were too secular.
3- I am puzzled by this statement. I can understand MQM and PTI dislike each other, but Mohajirs and Imran Khan dislike each other ?
4- I agree that Mhajirs are more educated and politically astute and to address their legitimate concerns they formed MQM. But MQM has not delivered for them except enriching some of its prominent leaders. Karachi and its residents are suffering even more. Being politically so astute, why this unconditional support for MQM. Unconditional support for any party will make it corrupt.
Fayyaz