(By John Della Volpe. Mr. Della Volpe is the director of polling at the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics. He runs a research firm that conducted polls for a PAC supporting the Joe Biden and Kamala Harris campaigns.)

“The excuses for Kamala Harris’s loss are piling up, but they mask a deeper, more devastating reality: Democratic Party leaders did not listen deeply to and earn the trust of young voters, who could have helped her prevail in Michigan and other swing states. As a pollster who focuses on the hopes and worries of these Americans, losing to Donald Trump — not once but twice — represents a profound failure. Ms. Harris’s campaign needed to shift about one percentage point of voters across Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin to secure the presidency, but instead struggled in college towns like Ann Arbor, Mich., and other blue places. Think about that: Flipping just one in every hundred voters would have stopped the likelihood of mass deportations, tax cuts for the wealthy, rollbacks of L.G.B.T.Q. protections and the reversal of climate regulations.”

“At the same time, the campaign’s struggles with young voters went far beyond tactical failures. When young Americans voiced deep moral concerns about Gaza and the humanitarian crisis unfolding there, they received carefully calibrated statements rather than genuine engagement with their pain. I believe this issue contributed to lower enthusiasm and turnout in battleground states in 2024 compared to 2020.”

“The coming electoral landscape looks particularly challenging. The 2026 and 2028 Senate maps seem likely to favor Republicans, with Democrats defending vulnerable seats in Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Arizona. Only a handful of Republican seats in competitive states will be up for grabs. The stakes transcend electoral politics — they cut to the heart of American democracy itself. While Ms. Harris fought valiantly for the 107 days of her campaign, the party’s systematic disconnection from its base’s most urgent moral and economic concerns cost them the election.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/11/opinion/kamala-harris-young-voters.html

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