But the PML-N is no friend of the MQM’s. The fraught history of relations between the two parties is full of antagonism and mistrust. In the early days of Musharraf’s government, the MQM was invited to join the cabinet. When I asked Tariq Aziz, Musharraf’s principal civilian advisor, why he had helped induct this party into the government, he was pretty blunt: “We know the MQM has a stranglehold on Karachi, so we would rather have them with us than have them closing down the city every few days.”

This brings us to the source of the MQM’s power: the party that can shut down a city controls it. Despite its steady decline over the last three decades, Karachi remains Pakistan’s jugular vein. Each time the MQM announces one of its frequent days of protest or mourning, billions are lost.

So it’s not the number of seats it wins in the national and provincial assemblies, but the effectiveness of its muscle power to bring Karachi to a standstill that gives the party its clout.

And while the PML-N can distance itself from the MQM, the PPP has come to terms with the reality of the ethnic party. Whatever its nationalist elements might feel, the leadership realises that both Sindhis and Mohajirs have to share the province.

Another factor driving the need to cooperate is the steady influx of the Taliban into Karachi. These religious extremists threaten to displace the ANP as the representatives of the huge Pakhtun community in the metropolis. Thus far, the government has proved ineffective in confronting them, and it appears that only the MQM has the manpower and firepower to take them on.

But as recent events have shown, the MQM is not the monolithic entity it once was. Apart from the recent erosion of its once-solid vote bank, there are signs of cracks in its discipline. Its leader’s bizarre statements from London reveal a person increasingly out of touch with reality.

These last five years while the MQM was a coalition member in both Islamabad and Karachi, it often acted as though it was in the opposition.

Given these factors, the coming years do not hold out much promise for peace and prosperity in Karachi. Nawaz Sharif will be happy to see the MQM and the PPP self-destruct over the next five years.” To read full article click link below;

http://dawn.com/2013/05/25/unhappy-marriage-in-sindh/

Qamar Ali writes in 3 Quarks Daily about PTI & Imran Khan’ Loss

In the short election campaign the Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf (PTI) of Imran Khan captured the imagination of the newly educated and elite classes but it did not have the time (and/or the ability) to catch up with the pre-poll favorite, the PMLN. The superior and far more detailed groundwork done by the PMLN while it ruled Punjab for 5 years, its stronger slate of candidates, its relatively energetic performance in the Punjab government, and Mian Nawaz Sharif’s improved reputation, (along with a PPP collapse) led to a PMLN landslide in Punjab.

There, an almost millenarian excitement took hold of the middle class in the course of the PTI campaign; This phenomenon was most visible on social media and in the better neighborhoods of urban centers. Meeting each other at coffee spots and snack bars and pushing “like” buttons on each other’s facebook pages, the newly energized middle class supporters of Imran Khan managed to convince themselves that a complete root and branch renovation of Pakistan under brand new leadership was on the cards.

Never mind that Imran Khan’s had not told anyone how the great 90 day transformation would be carried out in terms of actual mechanics and workable solutions. Or that Imran Khan’s actual candidates (in a parliamentary system, constituency politics matters) were a motley collection of turncoats, inexperienced youngsters, Islamists (a good number made their bones in the Islami Jamiat Tulaba, student wing of the Jamat Islami and not known for handling opponents with kid gloves),

NGO stars and not-so-clean real estate manipulators was ignored. Unaware that this excitement had not really reached all voters, these newly politicized young people were taken aback when results did not match expectations and loudly complained about electoral rigging. But there is no indication that there was any nation-wide systematic manipulation by the establishment of the sort that has happened regularly in past elections. Small-scale local rigging did take place (and possibly some  late-night administrative shenanigans did take place in Punjab once trends became clear) but compared to most past elections, this one was relatively clean in Punjab. Since most PTI voters were not involved in past elections, they don’t have any benchmark with which to compare this election and remain convinced that they were robbed. But given the fact that PMLN has probably won fair and square on most seats and even PTI enthusiasts have little concrete proof of extensive rigging, these protests will fade soon in Punjab.

Qamar Ali writes about Karachi and MQM

The same cannot be said of Karachi; there, the MQM has been accused of extrensive ballot-stuffing and other irregularities.  While PTI did not make any serious campaign effort in the MQM strongholds, they did put up a strong campaign in NA250, where a lot of the super-elite lives. When the election commission failed to conduct a fair election even in that seat the PTI broke a longstanding Karachi taboo and openly protested against the MQM.  MQM chief Altaf Hussain made a threatening speech from London in response and on Saturday a prominent member of the PTI women’s wing was shot dead in an apparent target killing.

While no one has claimed responsibility and the police (as usual) have no leads, Imran Khan made the unusual move of publicly holding Altaf Hussain responsible for this murder. The resulting confrontation between the PTI and the MQM has raised the hopes of all those in the country who think the MQM needs to be cut down to size and its mafia-like hold on Karachi has to be defanged. But that may be easier said than done. .

Karachi is a migraine for all concerned. First of all, we should be clear that there is no question of PTI “taking on” the MQM in Karachi on its own. PTI has no armed operatives and no mafia-skills. They can collect everyone’s sympathy and still get nowhere. The only way this confrontation tilts towards PTI is if the state is willing to fight MQM on their behalf. But that has issues of its own. The police and judiciary in Karachi is currently politicized, corrupt and ineffective. They will not be able to do this job on their own. This means that if there is a confrontation between the state and MQM, the army and its intelligence agencies will be involved or MQM will win. And the “agency” way of “getting it done” in Pakistan usually involves causing a split in the targeted party (e.g. by engineering a revolt in the party or maybe even getting Altaf Hussain arrested in London in connection with the killing of Imran Farooq ), setting off a turf-war on the streets, and then using extra-judicial executions and disappearances to manage the resulting violence. They have no other script. But these are inherently risky operations and the intelligence agencies have such a long and convoluted history of meddling in Karachi that by now even they dont know who will fight who on whose behalf. Since neither the PMLN nor the army, can afford a risky operation in Karachi while busy fighting Taliban, its probalby not going to happen in the near future. Even if they do try it, it will not be the quick restoration of law and order so desired by many who are currently sick of the MQM. It will be chaotic, it will be violent, and it will not end soon. And given rumors of links with British intelligence and the “international community”, Altaf Hussain may not have run out of options yet. So the more likely scenario is that PTI’s more elite followers will be permitted to openly challenge the MQM in some areas (a big change in itself) but there will be no grand operation and no sudden restoration of rule of law in Karachi. IF Nawaz Sharif and the army prove to be miracles of farsightedness and maturity, then maybe in a few more years MQM will be pushed towards either becoming a more normal political party, or be defanged by careful use of improved law-enforcement in Karachi.  All that without alienating Mohajirs as a community or carrying out extensive kill-and-dump operations and crudely executed gang-on-gang manipulations. One can always hope, but there is no quick fix. For full analysis of future of politics in Pakistan, click on link below:

http://www.3quarksdaily.com/3quarksdaily/2013/05/aftermath-pakistan-elections-2013.html?

Posted By F. Sheikh